Sea-surface temperatures near the West Coast of South America are right at normal levels. According to scientists at the Climate Prediction Center in the U.S., we are still in a La Nada, the in-between warmer El Nino and cooler La Nina sea-surface temperature event. However, there are scattered ‘pockets’ of cooler and warmer waters along the Equator which would support a La Nada event.
But, a recent article in Time Magazine states that we’re in a very weak ‘El Nino.’ This is likely based on the much warmer sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska and east of New Zealand, along the International Date Line.
The Climate Prediction Center also states that we’ll likely be in this La Nada pattern through the summer season. However, the latest computer models project that we’ll be in at least a weak El Nino later in the spring season as ocean temperatures are expected to warm up along the Equator.
Low pressure systems will often form near regions of warmer waters. This may be one reason why we’ve this extreme weather patterns across the country as high pressure ridges will be enhanced to the east of the strong low pressure systems, like the one in the Gulf of Alaska. As a strong low pressure system forms in that area, a strong high pressure is enhanced east of the area, like the one that has been locked in over the western U.S.
Thanks to that strong high pressure ridge, California and the Desert Southwest are going through one of the driest periods on record over the central and southern portions of the Golden State. Major cutbacks of water supplies to farmers will occur if moisture does not increase in the Golden State very soon. Family members in California state that wells are completely dry and large lakes now look like ponds. The lack of water has become a major concern to state officials.
If we stay in a La Nada or a weak El Nino sea-surface temperature cycle, there is still a good chance for more colder and snowier weather across the northern U.S., especially east of the Rockies. Longer-range computer models do indicate the western high pressure ridge should start to weaken by the "new moon" cycle of January 30 which would bring much desperately needed moisture into California and increase the chances of snowfall here in the Inland Northwest.
