Randy Mann and I see a rather “active” hurricane and tropical storm season this year, very similar to the 2010-2012 seasons when there were 19 named storms each year. Last year, in 2013, we had a near-normal 16 named storms ending with “Karen” in early October. The normal is 10 named storms.
The most significant hurricane during the past four years to hit the U.S. was Hurricane “Sandy” in late October and early November of 2012. Sandy turned out to be the second costliest hurricane in U.S. history at more than $2 billion in damages. Only Hurricane “Katrina” in 2005 had greater total damage, more than $5 billion. I should likewise mention that the 2005 hurricane season had an all-time record 28 named storms.
This time around, we’re predicting somewhere between 16 and 20 named storms. Approximately 9 of these tropical storms will become hurricanes. At least 3 of the hurricanes will reach a damaging Category 3 status. One or two of these strong hurricanes could strike the U.S. either in the Gulf states or along the southeastern coastline in Florida, Georgia or the Carolinas. But, we don”t see another killer hurricane like Sandy hitting the northeastern U.S. this 2014 season. A rather cool, moist flow from the Great Lakes and southeastern Canada should push any Atlantic hurricanes well out to sea away from New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic regions.
The normal Atlantic and Caribbean tropical storm and hurricane season begins on June 1 and ends nearly six months later on November 30. But, we’ve had named tropical storms as early as April and as late as January, especially during this stormy period of wide weather “extremes.”
According to Randy, the latest sea-surface ocean temperature data shows that we”re still in the in-between stages of a warmer “El Nino” and cooler “La Nina,” a “La Nada” event. But, a new warmer “El Nino” may be declared sometime this fall or during the winter of 2014-15. If it arrives earlier than expected, it could cut the hurricane season short, because El Ninos often sheer the tops off tropical storms preventing further intensification. Once again, only time will tell.
