Most of us have heard of this new El Nino, the warmer than normal sea-surface temperature event in the south-central Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon began in March and continues to strengthen as we head into the summer season. As of mid June, it appears we have a “moderate” event, but may become a very strong El Nino later this summer or fall.
Based on the long-term forecast models, scientists believe that this new El Nino will be fairly strong with an 90 percent chance it will be with us through the fall season and about an 85 percent chance El Nino will be influencing global weather patterns during the winter of 2015-16.
Warmer sea-surface temperatures extend from the West Coast of South America westward along the Equator. The latest information shows much warmer than normal sea-surface temperatures near the West Coast of South America. Readings are as much as 4-5 degrees above normal levels. The average along the Equator, where the water is also very warm, is about 1-3 degrees above normal.
As El Nino continues to strengthen, forecasters believe this could be one of the strongest in several decades. According to the Australia Bureau of Meteorology, there hasn’t been as much warm water in the tropical Pacific Ocean since the big El Nino event in 1997-98, which was the strongest in recorded history.
In addition to the rapid warming of ocean waters along the Equator, there are also pools of expanding warm waters extending northward along the U.S. West Coast and into the Gulf of Alaska. As we’ve mentioned in many articles, California has been devastated by an historic drought in the last 4 years. Scientists blame this dryness, at least in part, on the big “blob” of warmer waters off the U.S. West Coast. They believe that the warm waters heats the air above it, intensifying the high pressure ridge over western North America, providing dry and warm weather to the east and driving the flooding rains to the south-central Great Plains during the spring season.
This new warm water phenomenon will probably be more noticeable during the winter season. The southern portions of the country will likely be wetter than normal with snow droughts in the northern U.S. In other words, it appears that we’re going to see another winter season with below normal snowfall here in the Inland Empire. During most El Nino events, especially the strong ones, California receives much heavier than normal rainfall.
Based on the current forecasts, the Golden State may see “flooding rains” this upcoming winter season, a pattern similar to Oklahoma and Texas as the big floods in that region ended a decade-long drought in a matter of weeks. Remember, long droughts are often broken by floods, especially in California.
